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Thoughts on design, digital strategy, and the craft of building systems that matter.

An editorial constellation on warm paper: a single coral node at the center — one email address — with faint lines radiating out to a scattered field of grey nodes (open-web signals), and three coral nodes lit up among them for the inferred news, pain, and product relevance.

Aug 8, 2026//Martech

Start With an Email. End With a Hypothesis.

An editorial dot field on warm paper: a large muted-grey crowd of dots with a scattered coral-highlighted minority — the persuadable customers an uplift model selects — plus a few faint red dots marking customers a coupon would push away.

Aug 8, 2026//Martech

Uplift, Not Propensity: Causal Targeting for the Post-Cookie Web

You are probably paying your best customers to do exactly what they were going to do anyway. Propensity scoring — targeting whoever is most likely to buy — is the martech default, and it is quietly wrong. This is a field guide to uplift modeling: finding the people who convert only because you nudged them, demonstrated with a runnable simulation that keeps working even after third-party cookies are gone.